Epsom Derby: tips and guide to the runners
DAWN APPROACH: The top two-year-old of last season. He carried on the good work when easily winning the 2000 Guineas over a mile. This is his first foray beyond that trip but he is bred to stay. Only negative is that he a very short price in the 2013 Epsom Derby betting.
MAGICIAN: After a facile Chester victory, this Aidan O’Brien trained colt won the Irish 2000 Guineas emphatically and impressively. Not a long recovery time between that race and this but even Dawn Approach’s trainer Jim Bolger has murmured his concerns about beating Magician.
BATTLE OF MARENGO: has been the long-time number one Derby hope from the O’Brien yard. However magician’s performance put him in the shade. He won his trial in Ireland but everyone was expecting him to be more impressive. Can not be ruled out of calculations.
OCOVANGO: Unbeaten in three runs in France and hard to tie the form in with the others. He hails from the yard of master trainer Andre Fabre who won this with Pour Moi after a similar preparation. Could be worth a bet each-way.
CHOPIN: This German raider has won minor races there with great ease. Bred for peanuts and would be the rags to riches story if he prevailed here. Very hard to assess his foreign form and would be a surprise to see him win, though stranger things have happened.
RULER OF THE WORLD: Like Magician won easily at Chester and also from the O’Brien yard. Often their longer-priced representatives in the Derby betting odds will outperform their better-fancied stablemates. This twice raced son of super-sire Galileo could represent excellent each-way value.
LIBERTARIAN: Trained by the Yorkshire based Burke family, Libertarian won the Dante Stakes at York. That is traditionally one of the strongest Derby trials. Because of his unfashionable origins he is a longer price than he ought to be. Guaranteed to stay this trip, unlike many of the field. If there is a fast pace he will be staying on through the field at the death and could go close.
OUR CONCLUSION: You will not get rich backing Dawn Approach at odds-on. If you think he must win then just watch the race and keep your betting money in your pocket because there are some negatives. There are two attraction each-way bets in this race and they are Ruler Of The World and Libertarian. Both seem ignored in the Derby odds and they look a bit of value in a race were the majority of the field is very unexposed.